Rajasthan Kharif Crop Alert: Weak Monsoon Threatens Bajra and Guar Output in 2026

Rajasthan's agricultural sector is facing a challenging Kharif season in 2026 as deficient monsoon rainfall threatens production of several major crops. State Agriculture Department estimates indicate that output of bajra, moong and guar could decline compared with the previous year. Groundnut production, however, is expected to increase, offering some relief amid uneven crop performance across the state.

Bajra production is projected at 4.939 million tonnes in 2026, down from 5.373 million tonnes in the previous year. The area under cultivation also declined from 4.352 million hectares to 3.958 million hectares. Bajra is an important crop for Rajasthan, particularly in dry regions where farmers depend heavily on monsoon rainfall. Inadequate precipitation can affect sowing, crop development and final yields.

Guar production is also expected to decline, with estimates indicating output of 1.785 million tonnes compared with 1.974 million tonnes last year. Guar is particularly important in western Rajasthan, where limited rainfall has affected cultivation. The crop is used in food processing and industrial applications, including oil and gas operations. Reduced availability has already contributed to concerns about supplies and market prices. Moong production, meanwhile, is estimated at 1.44 million tonnes, compared with 1.379 million tonnes in the previous year, suggesting a potential increase despite the wider challenges.

Groundnut is expected to perform better, with production projected to reach 2.821 million tonnes, compared with 2.123 million tonnes last year. The area planted with groundnut also increased. However, the overall production outlook remains mixed, and the final estimates have yet to be confirmed as crop arrivals at agricultural markets continue. The extent of the impact will depend on actual harvest figures and local crop conditions.

Agriculture and allied activities play a significant role in Rajasthan's economy, supporting rural employment and household incomes. A decline in major Kharif crops could affect farmers, agricultural traders and related industries. The state's final production figures will be important in assessing the scale of the impact and the implications for crop prices and rural livelihoods.