India’s 2026–27 rabi season is beginning amid concerns over rainfall shortages and water availability. India received around 87% of its long-period average rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon, according to an October assessment by ICRA. Uneven rainfall and developing El Niño conditions have added uncertainty to agricultural planning, particularly in regions that depend heavily on rainfall.

Wheat, pulses, oilseeds and other winter crops require suitable soil moisture during sowing and early growth. When rainfall is inadequate and irrigation resources are limited, farmers may face delays in sowing or need to reconsider their crop choices. The impact, however, is likely to vary between states depending on local weather, groundwater availability and reservoir levels.

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Water storage has emerged as another important concern. ICRA’s assessment highlighted below-average reservoir storage at the end of September, with a particularly significant shortfall in southern India. Reduced water availability could affect irrigation planning and add pressure to farmers already managing higher cultivation costs.

Farmers and agricultural authorities will be watching rainfall forecasts, reservoir conditions and local soil moisture closely during the coming weeks. Water-saving irrigation, suitable crop selection and timely agricultural advisories could help reduce risks. The final impact on rabi production will depend on how weather conditions develop throughout the growing season.